Thursday, October 20, 2005

Hariri report is due soon

After a flailed attempt at an extension, Mehlis will be submitting his report on harriri's assassination tomorrow. I've never seen a whole nation in tense anticipation the way lebanon is now. Everyone is talking about it, from the highest minister to (this)the lowly engineering student. While no one has any idea whats in the report (those germans and their secrecy!), pretty much everyone is sure that regardless of what Mehlis says, there will be direct reactions in lebanon, and not necessarily good ones. Heres a quick (i have class in 30 min, type nasser type! )rundown of some possible scenarios:

Mehlis blames the syrians

Car bomb(s). Simple as that. The syrian remnant in lebanon loves to blow things up when the world dosent go there way. like a child with a tantrum and a supply of c4, we dont really want to upset our neighbors to the east, but stepped up lebanese security should help...maybe. based on recent events, this is the most possible outcome. lebanese would rejoice.

Mehlis blames the lebanese

by lebanese i mean the ones tied into syria. this would spark an internal problem. supporters of the blamed (sounds like a new metal band) would lash out against the rest of the country, calling them names and being big poopoo heads. violence would depend on who was blamed, since different people have different groups with different weapons. a good possibility that this can happen, although it would result in the disappointment of most of lebanon, who really really really want syria to be blamed.

Mehlis blames hezballah

bad mehlis! no pudding for you! not only is it illogical (explanation in another post), but it would result in a very very very divided and confused nation. all the lebanese are behind hezballah, and to blame them would be to blame the lebanese themselves. i for one would be offended by it, as would just about everyone i know. the danger here is not in what would happen internally (we would probably reject the report and go about our own business), but what the world would want done to hezballah, and how they would react (again, in another post). i was worried this would happen for a while, but it seems now unlikely they would be blamed.

Mehlis report is 'inconclusive'

a new investigation will have to be started into Mehlis's assassination.

Mehlis draws a series of pretty pictures

We would all smile and say things like "oh, Mehlis...that Jokester!" this would be the least violent, and, as compared to the above scenarios, the most desirable.

So basically, we are in for a ride that is "interesting" to Say the least. But as always, I am illogically optimistic about this country, so lets just hope that Mehlis has his crayons ready.

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